The EV Model in iGaming

Publication date: 25 January 2026

In traditional iGaming, affiliates were accustomed to a straightforward logic: the player loses, the casino wins, and the affiliate receives their percentage. This model shaped the market for decades, enabling the creation of SEO projects, media outlets, communities, and allowing revenue forecasting over time. However, with the rise of crypto casinos, provably fair mechanics, high rollers, and bonus ecosystems, this familiar logic began to break down.

A different model is gradually taking its place — payouts based on Expected Value (EV). It’s rarely named outright but often disguised as Adjusted Revenue, Net Contribution, or an “improved RevShare.” The essence remains consistent: instead of receiving a share from players’ actual losses, affiliates now earn a portion of the mathematical expectation that these players generate for the casino.

On paper, it appears honest, logical, even advantageous. In practice, however, it’s one of the riskiest models for gambling and betting affiliates, especially if they don’t understand how exactly variance is distributed.

What is EV (Expected Value) in the Context of Casinos?

EV is the mathematical expectation of the outcome over a long distance. In gambling, it reflects how much money the casino earns or loses on average with each bet over a large number of repetitions.

If a slot has an RTP of 96%, it means that:

approximately 96% of turnover is returned to players;
around 4% constitutes the expected margin for the casino.

It’s important to note: EV is a theoretical concept, not an individual player’s actual result. One player may win, another may lose, but mathematically speaking, over time, the casino will reap what it expects.

In the traditional RevShare model, the affiliate earns based on an actual outcome: the player lost → there is GGR → payment is made.

In the EV model, the affiliate earns based on expectations: the player was supposed to lose according to mathematics → the share is calculated accordingly.

These are fundamentally different approaches.

How Payouts Are Calculated in the EV Model: Formulas and Examples

Despite various names, the mechanism is almost always the same. The casino takes the player’s turnover, applies the specific game’s house edge, and then subtracts all incentives given to the player.

In practice, the formula looks approximately like this:

total player wager × house edge
minus rakeback
minus tournament prizes
minus additional bonuses and compensations

The resulting value is the casino’s net EV, from which the affiliate receives a percentage (typically 60–80%).

If the EV is positive, the affiliate receives a payout.
If the EV is negative, the affiliate incurs a loss.

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Example with Positive EV: Basic Scenario
A player placed $1,000,000 in bets on a slot with 96% RTP.

The casino’s mathematical expectation:
$1,000,000 × 0.04 = $40,000.

The player received:
- $20,000 in rakeback;
- $5,000 in tournament prizes.
The casino’s net EV:
$40,000 − $20,000 − $5,000 = $15,000.

The affiliate’s share is 70%.

Affiliate payout:
$15,000 × 0.7 = $10,500.

These are precisely the kinds of examples affiliate programs most often show when explaining the EV model.
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Example with Negative EV: Real-World Risk
Now, another scenario that is particularly characteristic of crypto casinos.

A player placed $130,000,000 in bets on the same slot with 96% RTP.

Casino EV:
$130,000,000 × 0.04 = $5,200,000.

However, due to aggressive rakeback and tournament activity, the player received:
- $2,600,000 in rakeback;
- $3,500,000 in tournament prizes.
The casino’s net EV:
$5,200,000 − $2,600,000 − $3,500,000 = −$900,000.

The affiliate’s share is 70%.

Result for the affiliate:
−$900,000 × 0.7 = −$630,000.

This is not an error or a penalty. This is the correct operation of the EV model.
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Why Do Casinos Choose the EV Model?

For the operator, it is a rational move. The casino knows its margin in advance, does not share the variance, and does not pay affiliates for players who win or effectively farm promotions.

In essence, the casino tells the affiliate: “We only share what the player was mathematically expected to lose, not what’s actually happened.”

Why Do Operators Implement the EV Model?

Protection Against Losses: An operator won’t pay an affiliate for a player who received pure profit directly from the operator (won or claimed a bonus).
Quality Incentive: Affiliates start filtering traffic, moving away from overtly “bonus-driven” traffic and encouraging audiences towards regular play.
Transparency and Automation: All deductions are visible in reports, reducing disputes and enabling automated calculations.

Why is the EV Approach Particularly Prevalent in Crypto Casinos?

Crypto casinos provide the perfect environment for EV-based logic. They offer high transparency in math, provably fair mechanics, massive turnovers, and players who consciously optimize the bonus economy. Tournaments, leaderboards, rakebacks and returns become integral parts of player strategy rather than mere perks.

For casinos, this translates into one key insight: actual results become too volatile, making sharing them with partners unprofitable. The EV model allows fixing the economics by shifting the risk of unusual player behavior onto affiliates.

Casinos and Platforms Using EV Logic or Similar Models

The industry features a spectrum of partnership models where economic logic can incorporate the theoretical profitability of players. These approaches range from explicit implementations to those integrated within more complex systems:

Duelbits: Often cited as a benchmark model with transparent and direct calculation principles.
Rollbit: Demonstrates a hybrid strategy where certain gaming verticals prominently reflect economic mechanisms.
BC.Game: While formally adhering to a standard income distribution model, additional factors such as bonus activity shape the final economy, aligning closely with alternative principles.
Stake: Utilizes a standardized model for most partners while offering tailored conditions and adapted metrics for key stakeholders.
Roobet: A dynamic system of promotions and marketing activities significantly influences affiliate terms.

A simple pattern emerges: the greater the presence of bonuses, tournaments and rakeback, the closer the affiliate program comes to an EV-like model, regardless of its formal designation.

Payment Models in Affiliate Marketing: Comparison with Expected Value

Model	What Forms the Basis for Calculation	Who Benefits	Risks for Operators
RevShare (RS)	Percentage of Player Turnover (Bets)	Affiliate, if the player plays heavily, even at a loss to the operator (due to bonuses).	High. Can go negative by paying affiliates for losing players.
CPA/Hybrid	Fixed Fee for Deposit/Registration + Small RS	Affiliate: quick cash flow. Operator: control over CAC.	Low, but lacks long-term motivation for partners.
EV (Expected Value)	Percentage of Net Income from Player (Bets – Wins – Bonuses)	Operator and affiliate attracting quality, relevant players.	Minimal. Affiliate shares all risks.

EV Models in Affiliate Marketing: How to Make a Choice

An affiliate doesn’t just share profits with the operator but also assumes risks associated with bonuses, wagering requirements, high refund rates (chargebacks), and player luck. If a player wins or burns through bonuses, the affiliate’s earnings drop or vanish entirely.

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Advantages of the EV Model for Affiliates
EV-share isn’t always bad. Under certain circumstances, it might even be more beneficial than classical RevShare.

It works well if your traffic is:
- high-volume and recreational;
- with low limits;
- free of high-rollers;
- free of bonus hunters.
Additionally, such affiliate programs frequently offer:
- a high percentage (60–80%);
- a formally transparent formula;
- fewer manual adjustments.
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Drawbacks and Systemic Risks
The main issue with the EV model is the asymmetrical distribution of risk. A single high-volume player can:
- drag the affiliate program into negative figures;
- ruin the statistics for a month or quarter;
- create a negative balance that affects future earnings.
The EV approach is especially dangerous if you work with:
- community-driven traffic;
- analytical players;
- bonus optimizers;
- tournament-focused audiences.
Read more

In the short term, EV-share might even appear more attractive. A high percentage, quick numbers, and a sense of “fair math.” However, iGaming is a long-term business.

RevShare is based on actual results. Variance smooths out over time, and risk is shared between the casino and the affiliate. One lucky player is a temporary issue.

EV-share operates differently. Here, variance doesn’t smooth out; it accumulates. The casino presets its own mathematics, while the affiliate absorbs the impact of bonuses, tournaments, and player behavior.

To put it in one simple idea:

RevShare is a joint business with the casino.
EV-share is working under the casino’s strict mathematical model.

The key question for making a decision: Are you willing to share all the risks with the operator in order to receive a higher percentage of the actual profit in the long term?

Situations Where EV-Share Is BENEFICIAL and Justified

Check the box if your traffic and conditions meet most of the following points:

1.Your Audience Profile

Qualified Players: You attract not bonus hunters, but players who make repeat deposits and play for entertainment.
Low Demand for Bonuses: Your audience rarely requests no-deposit bonuses or free spins. They come to play, not for freebies.
High Average Deposit: The higher the deposit, the lower the relative weight of the bonus in the player’s economy and the higher their turnover.
Long LTV (Lifetime Value): Players stay for a long time, creating a stable steam of turnover.

2. Characteristics of the Operator and Your Agreement

High Commission Percentage: You are offered 50-60% of NGR (EV). Under RevShare, the same operator would offer 25-35% of turnover.
Low Bonus Margin: The operator has a modest bonus policy, high wagering requirements, and no aggressive giveaways.
Transparent Reporting: Your affiliate panel shows a detailed NGR calculation for each player (bets, wins, bonuses, chargebacks).
High RTP (Return to Player): The operator offers fair games with a high return percentage (97%+). This increases player turnover before they lose.

3. Your Strategy and Resources

Long-Term Perspective: You are prepared for income volatility in the first month and are focused on the cumulative effect over 3-6 months.
High Traffic Volume: You can attract a large number of players so that statistics average out and the impact of random wins is neutralized.
Control Over Sources: You know exactly where your traffic comes from and can cut off unprofitable sources.
Focus on Quality, Not Quantity: Your goal is to attract 100 real players, not 1,000 inactive registrations.

When to REJECT EV-share Immediately

Opt for RevShare, CPA, or a Hybrid model if any of the following apply:

1. Your Traffic Profile

Bonus-Oriented Audience: You operate through bonus aggregator sites, code-sharing forums, or Telegram channels with giveaways.
Low-Income GEOs: Players from areas with a low average deposit (e.g., India, Latin America), where the bonus is the key factor in choosing a casino.
Low LTV: Players make 1-2 deposits and leave (typical for traffic from teasers, pop-unders).
Niche Verticals: You attract poker or sports betting players, whose initial margin for the casino is lower and volatility is higher.

2. The Operator’s Profile

Aggressive Bonus Policy: The operator offers generous no-deposit bonuses, free spins upon registration, constant promotions with low wagering. Your income will be constantly eroded.
Non-Transparent Reporting: No breakdown of deductions, an unclear calculation formula. You won’t be able to verify the fairness of payouts.
Suspiciously High EV Percentage: Being offered 70%+ of NGR is a red flag. Hidden fees or unrealistic payout conditions are likely.

3. Your Situation and Goals

Need Stable Monthly Cash Flow: You cannot afford months with zero income due to wins from the players you referred.
Small or Medium Traffic Volume: You attract 10-50 players per month. One big win could wipe out your earnings for the entire period.
Unwilling to Dive Deep into Analytics: You are not prepared to daily monitor NGR, wagering, and bonuses for each player.
Testing a New Source or GEO: During the testing phase, it’s better to use CPA or RevShare to assess basic conversion and audience behavior without complicating the analysis with EV factors.

Payment via the EV Model in Media Buying: A Practical Rule for Quick Decisions

Choose EV-share if: You have your own website with a loyal audience, you create reviews and guides, not just funnel traffic to bonus pages. You are a publisher, not a media buyer.
Choose RevShare/CPA if: You work through paid advertising (TikTok, targeted ads) or media buying with a short funnel. Your goal is to quickly convert a registration into a first deposit and get a fixed fee (CPA) or a standard percentage of turnover (RS), without worrying about what happens to the player afterward.

Final Algorithm for EV-Share in Gambling and Betting

Analyze your players: Are they high-rollers or bonus hunters?
Study the operator’s terms: What’s the percentage? What are the bonuses? How transparent is the reporting?
Assess your risks: Can you withstand a 1-2 month downturn?
Make a decision: Long-term profit on your own terms (EV) vs. Stability and simplicity (RS/CPA).

The EV model is not a scam or a deception. It’s a cold, honest mathematical framework where the casino protects itself from variance by transferring the risk to the affiliate. It can be a viable option, but only with a complete understanding of your own audience.

If you can’t control who specifically plays among your referrals and how they exploit the bonus ecosystem, EV-share can quickly transform from a “70% partnership” into a prolonged deficit. That’s why, for most affiliates, the traditional RevShare model still proves to be more sustainable and secure over the long term, even though the percentage may appear less impressive.

FAQ

What is the EV model in iGaming affiliate programs in simple words?

The EV model (Expected Value) is a structure where an affiliate earns a percentage not from the actual losses of players, but from the casino’s mathematical expectation of profit based on those players’ bets. In essence, they take the total bet amount (wager), apply the game’s built-in house edge, subtract all bonuses/rakeback/prizes, and then calculate the affiliate’s percentage from this “net EV.” If the EV turns negative, that negative balance is carried over to the affiliate’s account.

How does the EV model differ from traditional RevShare?

In traditional RevShare, you earn a percentage of the actual result: a player loses → GGR is generated → your share comes from that. You and the casino share the variance (wins, bonuses). In the EV model, you are paid based on the theoretical margin (wager × edge − bonuses/rakeback). This means the operator locks in its mathematical edge upfront, while all the risk from atypical player behavior (high rollers, bonus hunters, tournaments, aggressive rakeback) falls on the affiliate.

Why do casinos implement EV affiliate programs, especially in the crypto segment?

EV logic is beneficial for operators because it protects them from paying for unprofitable or “bonus-overusing” players: they only share what a player “was mathematically expected to lose.” This is particularly critical in crypto casinos: massive betting volumes, provably fair, a competitive bonus ecosystem, tournaments and rakeback make actual results too volatile. Therefore, the EV model helps stabilize the economy and shifts a significant portion of the variance onto affiliates.

When can EV-share be profitable for an affiliate, and when is it better to avoid it?

The EV model can be profitable if you have large, stable, recreational traffic: players are “just for fun” type, make repeat deposits, don’t hunt for bonuses, have a high LTV, and the operator offers a genuinely high percentage (e.g., 50–60% NGR) with transparent reporting on NGR/EV. However, if you are driving bonus-hunting, low-income, or short-lived traffic (bonus aggregators, cheap teasers, GEOs with low average deposits) or working with high-rollers/tournament players, EV-share can easily turn into a prolonged deficit. In such cases, it is more logical to choose RevShare/CPA/Hybrid.

EV vs. RevShare/CPA: What's the best choice for a media buyer?

EV-share is appropriate if you are closer to a publisher: you have your own website, media, reviews, a loyal community, control over your traffic sources, and a willingness to tolerate volatility for a potentially larger share of the “fair” long-term profit. However, if you operate as a classic media buyer with paid traffic and a short funnel, need stable cash flow, and you are not prepared to dive deep into NGR/bonus analytics, it’s safer to opt for RevShare or CPA/Hybrid. With those models, the risks are clearer, variance is shared with the casino, and the EV math can’t suddenly pull you into a significant negative balance.