Publication date: 09 Dec 2020
Saxo Bank has released its annual set of Outrageous Predictions. Outrageous Predictions don’t give any official forecasts and describe only hypothetical future events. Though these predictions are about rather unlikely and underestimated events, some of them have come true.
Disinformation at critical level
In 2021, major media companies and social platforms are forced to impose new countermeasures against fabricated and misleading news. The enabling technology is a massive shared blockchain network for news content, which allows distribution of news in an immutable way with a validity check of both the content and the source. With a shared ledger structure, any content alterations would immediately be visible to everyone, and every news item would always be traceable to its original source, suppressing misinformation that other sources can’t verify, Saxo Bank’s analysts point out. Companies like Twitter and Facebook invest heavily in this blockchain tech, motivated first and foremost by self-preservation as the threats of regulatory oversight seen in recent years become white hot.
Renaissance of blockchain and digital currencies
In 2019, 80% of all payments in China were through electronic payment via WeChat Pay and AliPay. The People’s Bank of China will continue developing its block chain-based digital version of the Yuan (CNY) in 2021. Allowing full access for foreigners into Chinese capital markets will reduce the main barrier of concern for foreign investors for using the CNY in trade and investment: its liquidity and direct access to their investments inside China. Meanwhile, Saxo Bank’s experts say, the stability of the Chinese currency and the built-in traceability and oversight that blockchain tech enables will virtually eliminate the risk of capital flight or illegal transfers out of China.
Cheap and broad internet access
The arrival of satellite-based internet delivery systems will crush the price of internet provisioning, both increasing uptime and coverage area, but more importantly delivering an order of magnitude increase in download speeds. SpaceX’s Starlink will be the first on the scene there, with as many as 1,500 satellites by the end of 2021. Education and business productivity will reap the benefits. Moreover, Saxo Bank’s experts suggest, the ongoing revolution in fintech payment and banking systems will continue, and drone technology is set to revolutionise delivery systems.
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